1 Jul · 16:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vana
ELO 1581
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vana
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1552
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
🌟Kolman covers set handicap as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Vana
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+29
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.