1 Jul · 19:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JB
🇺🇦Jan Botka
ELO 1498
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Botka
EO
🇺🇦Evzen Ondracek
ELO 1489
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Botka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+9
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.