1 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1480
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Soukup
MS
🇺🇦Milos Soukup
ELO 1514
FormLLWLW
46%
54%
🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Soukup
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.