1 Jul · 20:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SA
🇺🇦Spartak Abalmaz
ELO 1589
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Abalmaz
TP
🇺🇦Tymur Ponomarenko
ELO 1581
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
🌟Ponomarenko covers set handicap as underdog 73% (15)
Fair odds · Abalmaz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.