1 Jul · 15:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DD
🇺🇦Dmytro Derevynskyi
ELO 1546
FormLWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ponomarenko
TP
🇺🇦Tymur Ponomarenko
ELO 1581
FormLWWLL
46%
54%
🌟Derevynskyi covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Ponomarenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.