1 Jul · 17:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AP
🇺🇦Adam Pavlik
ELO 1525
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pavlik
TK
🇺🇦Tomas Kanka
ELO 1512
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pavlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H11-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.