2 Jul · 10:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VS
🇺🇦Vladyslav Stukalov
ELO 1433
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kondratenko
VK
🇺🇦Vasily Kondratenko
ELO 1448
FormLWWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stukalov🌟Stukalov covers set handicap as underdog 65% (31)
Fair odds · Kondratenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.