2 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇺🇦Martin Kocvara
ELO 1564
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stibor
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1599
FormLWLLW
46%
54%
🌟Kocvara covers set handicap as underdog 65% (20)
Fair odds · Stibor
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.