2 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇺🇦Marcel Cmil
ELO 1504
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cmil
JJ
🇺🇦Jakub Dufek Jnr
ELO 1493
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jnr🌟Jnr stays under total as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Cmil
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H22-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.