2 Jul · 08:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Leonenko
ELO 1468
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kurtenko
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kurtenko
ELO 1490
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Leonenko🌟Leonenko goes over total as underdog 69% (26)
Fair odds · Kurtenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H25-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.