2 Jul · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OC
🇺🇦Ondrej Chadima
ELO 1509
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chadima
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1480
FormWLLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vorel🌟Chadima rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (17)
Fair odds · Chadima
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H12-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.