2 Jul · 16:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1605
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sukovatyi
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Sukovatyi
ELO 1615
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
🌟Sukovatyi stays under total as favourite 63% (41)
Fair odds · Sukovatyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H14-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.