2 Jul · 17:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maksymiv
ELO 1627
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Maksymiv
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1605
FormWWLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pohonov🌟Maksymiv rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (42)
Fair odds · Maksymiv
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H18-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.