2 Jul · 22:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ER
🇺🇦Eduard Rubtsov
ELO 1421
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kovalchuk
OK
🇺🇦Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
ELO 1450
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
🌟Kovalchuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (12)
Fair odds · Kovalchuk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H75-61
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.