3 Jul · 12:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JD
🇺🇦Josef Dolezal
ELO 1436
FormLLLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Liska
TL
🇺🇦Tomas Liska
ELO 1484
FormWLLLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Liska
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H5-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-2)