3 Jul · 10:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maksymiv
ELO 1664
FormWWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Maksymiv
AR
🇺🇦Andrii Romanenko
ELO 1616
FormWLLLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Romanenko🌟Romanenko covers set handicap as underdog 79% (19)
Fair odds · Maksymiv
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H12-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-11)