3 Jul · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DK
🇺🇦Dmytro Kryshtal
ELO 1657
FormLWLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Balabei
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Balabei
ELO 1733
FormLWLWW
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kryshtal🌟Kryshtal covers set handicap as underdog 62% (29)
Fair odds · Balabei
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~73 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+76
H2H56-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (56-27)