3 Jul · 11:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇺🇦Petr Semrad
ELO 1562
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Provaznik
LP
🇺🇦Lukas Provaznik
ELO 1574
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Provaznik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H15-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.