3 Jul · 08:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1577
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1601
FormWWWWL
47%
53%
🌟Kovshun stays under total as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H10-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.