3 Jul · 10:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Sukovatyi
ELO 1571
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pohonov
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1599
FormLLLWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sukovatyi🌟Sukovatyi covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Pohonov
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H26-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.