3 Jul · 11:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Balabei
ELO 1733
FormLWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Horokh
RH
🇺🇦Roman Horokh
ELO 1800
FormWWWWW
43%
57%
🌟Balabei stays under total as underdog 70% (23)
Fair odds · Horokh
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~73 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H139-78
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (139-78)