3 Jul · 19:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SP
🇺🇦Serhii Prus
ELO 1552
FormWLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Fashchevskyi
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1556
FormLLWWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fashchevskyi🌟Prus covers set handicap as underdog 92% (12)
Fair odds · Fashchevskyi
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H17-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.