3 Jul · 17:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1556
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Potapov
MP
🇺🇦Mykhailo Potapov
ELO 1560
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
🌟Fashchevskyi goes over total as underdog 78% (23)
Fair odds · Potapov
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H7-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.