3 Jul · 14:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1556
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Storozhenko
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Storozhenko
ELO 1573
FormWLLWL
48%
52%
🌟Fashchevskyi goes over total as underdog 78% (23)
Fair odds · Storozhenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.