3 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1511
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Smyk
VS
🇺🇦Vasiliy Smyk
ELO 1528
FormLLWWW
48%
52%
🌟Kolesnykov covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Smyk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 31% · 3.20· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H3-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.