3 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VS
🇺🇦Vasiliy Smyk
ELO 1528
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Osadchyi
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Osadchyi
ELO 1533
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
🌟Smyk covers set handicap as underdog 65% (20)
Fair odds · Osadchyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H5-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.