3 Jul · 22:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1439
FormLLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kovalchuk
NK
🇺🇦Nazar Kovalchuk
ELO 1514
FormLLLLW
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mitla🌟Mitla covers set handicap as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Kovalchuk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H21-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-9)