3 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OH
🇺🇦Orest Hura
ELO 1477
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lazebny
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebny
ELO 1507
FormWWLWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hura🌟Lazebny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (46)
Fair odds · Lazebny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.