3 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JP
🇺🇦Jan Pina
ELO 1507
FormWLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Abraham
PA
🇺🇦Petr Abraham
ELO 1508
FormLWWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Abraham
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.