3 Jul · 22:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇺🇦Martin Bruk
ELO 1523
FormLLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Bruk
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1462
FormLLLWW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Merkl🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Bruk
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+61
H2H8-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-5)