3 Jul · 21:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1614
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rak
IR
🇺🇦Ivan Romaniak
ELO 1572
FormWLWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Romaniak🌟Romaniak covers set handicap as underdog 81% (36)
Fair odds · Rak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H38-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.