3 Jul · 20:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OA
🇺🇦Oleksandr Alieksieev
ELO 1539
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Potapov
MP
🇺🇦Mykhailo Potapov
ELO 1551
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Potapov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.