4 Jul · 08:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇺🇦Dmytro Palii
ELO 1526
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Alieksieev
OA
🇺🇦Oleksandr Alieksieev
ELO 1547
FormWLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Alieksieev
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.