4 Jul · 10:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SY
🇺🇦Stefan Yakimenko
ELO 1513
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Smyk
VS
🇺🇦Vasiliy Smyk
ELO 1519
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🌟Yakimenko covers set handicap as underdog 66% (38)
Fair odds · Smyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H13-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.