4 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DA
🇺🇦Denis Aldayev
ELO 1355
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kolos
OK
🇺🇦Oleksandr Kolos
ELO 1387
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Kolos
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H18-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.