4 Jul · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OA
🇺🇦Oleksandr Alieksieev
ELO 1547
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Alieksieev
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1542
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
🌟Fashchevskyi goes over total as underdog 78% (23)
Fair odds · Alieksieev
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.