4 Jul · 10:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇺🇦Denys Pesternikov
ELO 1677
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pesternikov
DS
🇺🇦Denys Shcherbak
ELO 1645
FormWLWWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shcherbak🌟Pesternikov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (24)
Fair odds · Pesternikov
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H34-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.