4 Jul · 07:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SP
🇺🇦Serhii Prus
ELO 1552
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Prus
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1542
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
🌟Fashchevskyi goes over total as underdog 78% (23)
Fair odds · Prus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H11-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.