4 Jul · 11:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VS
🇺🇦Vasiliy Smyk
ELO 1519
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Troyan
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1552
FormWLLLL
46%
54%
🌟Smyk covers set handicap as underdog 65% (20)
Fair odds · Troyan
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.