4 Jul · 16:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AP
🇺🇦Andrey Pereiaslov
ELO 1505
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pereiaslov
AV
🇺🇦Andrii Vasylets
ELO 1497
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
🌟Vasylets covers set handicap as underdog 75% (16)
Fair odds · Pereiaslov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H1-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.