4 Jul · 14:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VS
🇺🇦Vasiliy Smyk
ELO 1519
FormWLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Osadchyi
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Osadchyi
ELO 1522
FormLWWLL
50%
50%
🌟Smyk covers set handicap as underdog 65% (20)
Fair odds · Osadchyi
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H5-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.