4 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1487
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Merkl
LS
🇺🇦Ludek Stoces
ELO 1455
FormWWWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stoces🌟Merkl rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (18)
Fair odds · Merkl
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.