4 Jul · 18:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1476
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Hura
OH
🇺🇦Orest Hura
ELO 1500
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Smyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 72% (43)
Fair odds · Hura
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H20-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.