4 Jul · 17:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1476
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Shmyndra
YS
🇺🇦Yurii Shmyndra
ELO 1485
FormWLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Smyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 72% (43)
Fair odds · Shmyndra
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.