4 Jul · 13:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1510
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Abraham
PA
🇺🇦Petr Abraham
ELO 1525
FormWWWLL
48%
52%
🌟Vorel covers set handicap as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Abraham
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H12-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.