4 Jul · 15:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Viktor Kucala
ELO 1390
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Coubal
VC
🇺🇦Vaclav Coubal
ELO 1430
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
🌟Kucala rarely covers set handicap as underdog 28% (18)
Fair odds · Coubal
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.