4 Jul · 17:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
EP
🇺🇦Evgeniy Pismenniy
ELO 1436
FormLWLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Pismenniy
RR
🇺🇦Roman Reznychenko
ELO 1357
FormLLLWL
58%
42%
🌟Reznychenko goes over total as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Pismenniy
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+79
H2H78-74
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (78-74)