4 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OB
🇺🇦Oleksandr Bondarchuk
ELO 1558
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Bondarchuk
AT
🇺🇦Alexander Tkachenko
ELO 1529
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
🌟Bondarchuk goes over total as favourite 73% (15)
Fair odds · Bondarchuk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H16-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.