4 Jul · 16:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YM
🇺🇦Yaroslav Makovka
ELO 1449
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Makovka
YH
🇺🇦Yevhenii Holoborodko
ELO 1444
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
🌟Holoborodko stays under total as underdog 63% (19)
Fair odds · Makovka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H3-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.