4 Jul · 15:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1476
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Smyrnov
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotyk
ELO 1445
FormWLWLW
53%
47%
🌟Kotyk stays under total as underdog 68% (34)
Fair odds · Smyrnov
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.